Facebook updates ad reach estimates. Move away from specific audience projections

Notice to Facebook Advertisers – Facebook announced today that it is changing the way it displays estimated audience reach for ads, moving from more specific reach estimates to generalized potential reach categories.

Right now, when you set up your Facebook ad, Facebook displays “Potential Reach” with a fairly specific number range of people your campaign is likely to be seen by, based on the targeting criteria you select.

Now Facebook reduces that:

In order to make the presentation of these pre-campaign estimates consistent, we change the potential audience and interest to ranges instead of specific numbers, this is how the estimated daily results are already presented. The ranges are also consistent with how pre-campaign estimates are presented on other platforms in the advertising industry. As part of this update, we’ll also be changing the name of Potential Reach to Estimated Audience Size.

Facebook audience projections

As you can see here, the new estimated audience display is larger, with the potential audience figure in this example covering a potential gap of 10 million users. Not all estimates will be this broad, but the basic premise is the same – Facebook will now show you a much more generalized reach estimate, as opposed to specific numbers, depending on your targeting criteria.

The new display will be used for ‘Potential Scope ”,“ Estimated Daily Results ”and for categories of interest in estimating the number of people likely to have a particular interest.

So why the change?

Facebook doesn’t explain exactly why it is updating its numbers, but it does provide an explanation in the Help Center preview of its estimated audience size calculation:

“Estimated audience size is not an indicator of monthly or daily active users on Facebook, nor of engagement. (Facebook’s quarterly earnings announcements provide this information.) The estimates are not designed to match population, census estimates, or other sources.

Facebook usage statistics often come from these estimates, as a proxy for region-specific numbers or information about people interested in a certain topic, or perhaps those who fall into a certain demographic. Maybe Facebook is just trying to avoid misinterpretation by eliminating the use of these numbers to incorrectly peg these data points.

It’s also possible that the numbers would be affected by recent changes Apple made to in-app data tracking, although for the most part the numbers used in this context come directly from Facebook, so they wouldn’t be affected by this. change.

Either way, that’s another thing to consider in your approach to Facebook ads – while this point of explanation on how he estimates potential reach is also interesting:

In cases where a person has connected their Facebook and Instagram accounts in Account Center, their Facebook and Instagram accounts will collectively be counted as one account for ad rating purposes. If a person has not connected their Facebook and Instagram accounts in Account Center, their accounts will be counted as multiple accounts for ad rating purposes.

This could have a significant impact on ad reach data and may be another reason Facebook is moving away from more specific numbers and toward more generalized estimates.

You can read more about Facebook’s estimated audience size calculations here.

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